Story: Minh Tri
Photos: Vinh Dav, Manh Quan, Shutterstock
After a period of rapid, expectation-driven growth, the real estate market is entering a more selective cycle, with investment capital expected to shift toward segments that meet genuine housing demand.
Liquidity slows as the market becomes more selective
In its Q2 2026 market report, the Vietnam Association of Realtors Research Institute (VARS IRE) said nearly 34,000 units were launched, down 8% year-on-year. New supply remained concentrated among major developers, with the leading group accounting for approximately 43% of total new launches.
VARS IRE recorded around 23,600 primary-market transactions during the quarter, equivalent to an absorption rate of 41%, down 6% from the previous quarter. In the first half of the year, the market recorded approximately 48,000 transactions, with the absorption rate falling 13% year-on-year to around 49%. Transactions were concentrated primarily in the apartment segment in major urban centers.
Average apartment prices in Hanoi stood at VND123 million per square meter, edging down from the previous quarter. In Hung Yen, prices rose 2% to VND69 million per square meter as developers adjusted prices in line with costs while offering more sales incentives. In Danang and Ho Chi Minh City, newly launched apartments averaged VND91 million and VND108 million per square meter, respectively, remaining broadly unchanged quarter-on-quarter.
The secondary market is showing increasingly clear signs of divergence. According to VARS IRE, projects that recorded rapid price increases in previous periods, particularly those entering the handover stage, are facing downward price pressure. Buyers who entered the market in 2023-2024 have tended to lower their profit expectations to improve liquidity.
Meanwhile, some investors who purchased during the market upswing in 2025 have also accepted lower resale prices to rebalance their cash flow and financial plans.
Speculative land plots and individual houses continued to face significant liquidity challenges. Despite substantial price reductions, properties driven solely by planning expectations or lacking immediate commercial potential remained difficult to sell.
Data from Dat Xanh Services also showed that current transaction activity is concentrated in projects serving genuine housing demand or generating stable income. At the same time, investment properties in outlying areas have recorded very limited sales. Primary prices generally remained higher than in the same period of 2025. Compared with late last year, however, overall prices have largely stabilized. Rather than reducing headline prices, some developers have introduced more incentives and discounts to support sales.
Capital returns to fundamental value
As the market becomes increasingly selective, both buyers and developers are adjusting their strategies. Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), said buyers are becoming more cautious and are waiting for interest rates and prices to stabilize. Rather than betting on short-term capital gains, purchasing decisions are now based on a broader range of factors, including financing policies, legal status, construction progress, handover quality, and rental potential.
Developers, meanwhile, continue to launch projects and bring new supply to the market but are placing greater emphasis on flexible sales policies to stimulate demand. Brokerage firms are also prioritizing products that serve genuine housing needs and offer stronger liquidity, enabling faster capital recovery.
Mr. Dinh stressed that slower liquidity does not mean capital is leaving the real estate market. Instead, it is shifting toward well-planned projects, large-scale urban developments, and locations with completed infrastructure, integrated amenities, and the ability to generate practical value immediately after becoming operational. According to VCBS, Vinhomes is expected to record revenue of approximately VND35.103 trillion in Q2 2026, up 85% year-on-year.
Similarly, Mr. Tran Quang Trung, Business Development Director at OneHousing, a member of One Mount Group, said the advantage will increasingly lie with financially capable investors and reputable developers. According to Mr. Trung, the dynamics of the property market are changing, and areas connected to metro lines, ring roads, and inter-regional transport corridors will become more attractive, particularly satellite urban areas.
In Hanoi and its surrounding areas, areas with significant development potential include Dong Anh, Long Bien, Hoai Duc, Dan Phuong and Van Giang (Hung Yen). These locations benefit from available land, infrastructure investment, and urban expansion and have attracted major developers such as Vinhomes, Masterise Homes, MIK Group, and Ecopark.
Mr. Trung forecast that the real estate market will increasingly be driven by large-scale projects linked to transit-oriented development (TOD). This is expected to become an important catalyst for creating new growth centers, expanding urban space, redistributing the population, and easing pressure on central districts.
